Vietnamese Tea Exporting and Forecasting to 2030

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the factors influencing Vietnamese tea export quantities, namely, the internal factors of national tea production, productivity, and cultivated areas, and the external factors of export price and world tea export quantity (excluding Vietnam). We employed a time-series linear model to estimate the magnitude as well as the sign of the aforementioned factors on Vietnam’s tea export quantity and two Box-Cox transformations called a simple back-transformed forecast and a bias-adjustment to forecast the growth rate of the Vietnamese tea export quantity until 2030. The results suggested that except for the total domestic tea production, all the proposed factors significantly affected the Vietnamese tea export quantity. The tea export quantity of other nations around the world had a significantly negative impact on Vietnamese tea that led to Vietnam’s tea exports dropping by 34 tons on average since the other countries exported 1,000 tons of tea. The forecasted outcome suggested an upward trend of Vietnamese tea exports up to 2030. In order to sustainably develop Vietnam’s tea industry, we recommend that the government should take supportive actions such as investing in in-depth tea processing to improve Vietnam’s tea export quality, focusing on post-harvest activities, investing in organic or high-value tea rather than conventional tea, continuing to  accumulate land to support the growth of cultivated tea areas, and maintaining high productivity by using hybrid seeds.